Analysts from firms Strategy Analytics and RBC Capital Market argue that the life cycle of mobile operating systems is 10 years. Thus, Apple iOS and Google Android already reached its peak of development and prior to sunset, there are about 5 years.
According to researchers, the average life cycle of each of the now nearly forgotten mobile platform was about 10 years and they reached their peak around the middle of this period. As an example, the experts suggested to look at the graph of the popularity of Windows Mobile, Palm OS and Symbian over time.
Of course, Strategy Analytics and RBC Capital Market gives a simplified representation of the actual situation on the market, although some truth in the report is still there. Despite the fact that the history of running away to the distant past - for example, Symbian has its origins in the late 80's, and Palm OS - since 1996 - the first commercial products based on these platforms, there were just about 10 years ago, 2001-2002. And now, these systems really are in oblivion.
These operating systems have reached its peak by about 5 years and to 10 years have virtually disappeared from the market. In other words, smart phone market is subject to its own law.
"History tells us that the operating system reaches its peak in the middle of a 10-year life cycle" - the authors of the study.
Recall, iOS entered the market with the first iPhone in June 2007 (then iPhone OS). As for Android, this system was announced in November 2007 and the first phone based on it went on sale in October next year. Thus, we can assume that the peak of iOS will be reached after 5 years after the sale of the first iPhone, you are in the middle of this year, and Android - at the end of 2013.
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